By Cameron Williams, Director of Research, SVN International Corp.
Coming off the pandemic, a scorching hot economy and jobs market placed the power of choice in the hands of job seekers. Reports of a ‘Great Resignation’, and ‘quiet quitting’ were widespread. Now, with conflicting ideas of what office work should look like, the ‘Great Mismatch’ is upon us. Large layoffs continue to dominate headlines and a looming possibility of a recession, the pendulum of power has swung back in favor of employers and the numbers say that they want you in the office.
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“This is an important indicator of the continued growth of SVN – in cold hard results,” says SVNIC President and CEO Kevin Maggiacomo. “This top 10 ranking solidifies the strength of the SVN brand, the reliability of our many online CRE tools and the talent of our hardworking Advisors.”
economists would describe this state of unemployment as near “full employment” as historical data analyses show that the country rarely dips below 4% and never for that long. Yet, this near historically low unemployment has occurred less from overly robust hiring, but instead from a lack of qualified workers able to fill open positions. In fact, the BLS reported in May a modest +138,000 jobs added to the economy, a good but not great number. Perhaps more importantly, the jobs report showed no single sector reporting significant losses, which indicates that all are hiring or holding steady. In addition, the only sector to have shown persistent losses over the last year, Mining (which includes energy production and exploration), has even reversed itself and is posting significant gains over the last few months. Therefore, the jobs report truly only supports the conclusion of an ever growing, albeit slowly, economy.
macroeconomic cyclical activity. In the past, such low levels of unemployment were often followed by a mild recession within the same timeframe. However, recessions are typically triggered by excessive speculation, risk-taking, and usually hyper aggressive lending that pushes the economy too far. The data does not show any such excesses, especially in the use of leverage or aggressiveness of lenders. So, such predictions may not come true. Second, the labor shortage is being felt very strongly in the construction services and materials sectors. This means the cost to build new properties is rising faster than market rents and prices can justify. The net result is commercial real estate will probably hold its value just fine, and in fact, appreciate in areas where there is short supply. In conclusion, according to the data, we are probably closer to the middle of the cycle than the end.
2. Urbanization is happening across the country.
effect could be measured. Job growth has mostly sustained at robust, consistent levels as unemployment sits at near full employment at 4.7%. Of course, the biggest impact has been stock equity prices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have risen approximately 10% since the election as a result of anticipated future growth. This future growth in the economy and jobs, if it materializes, will also mean increased demand for all types of commercial real estate, resulting in a possible rise of rental rates and occupancies.
1. What is your geographic market and product specialty?
1. What has been your strategy for growing your firm and also your market share?
