A Statement On Ukraine from Kevin Maggiacomo, SVN President and CEO

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Confidence and Optimism in Today's Commercial Real Estate Industry

According to the most recent published reports by the Conference Board, CEO Confidence spiked a highly significant 15 points as of January and the Consumer Confidence Index sits at 114.8 as of February, making each measure sit at 6 year and 15 year highs respectively. Confidence at these levels, especially when true for both consumer and business segments, leads to increased levels of investment and spending, both critical for demand of real estate. To appreciate why confidence is so high, it is important to look at the underlying fundamentals of the macroeconomy in early 2017.

CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN 2017

Job growth remains robust with multiple months of 200,000+ net new jobs, specifically 235,000 in February per the BLS, and a steady, low unemployment rate, presently 4.7%. This has led to continued wage growth and personal income growth, 0.4% in January alone. In addition, record high stock prices and growing home prices all add up to a (financially) happy household. Spending is up too with retail sales at a record high in the latest monthly reading and a 5.56% year over year growth rate as of January according to the Census Bureau. This has increased growth in manufactured goods order in the US, up 1.2% in January and up six out of the last seven months. In summary, the growing wave of positive news that began in the third quarter of 2016, appears to only have accelerated into the first quarter of 2017. Whether it’s due to raw macroeconomic fundamentals, or optimism following the election, the fact is, consumers are doing very well today.

The business sector still appears to be under investing, with only 0.04% growth in fixed investment in the 4Q2016 and there is a lot ground left to cover to get to full growth in the economy. If businesses invest more vigorously, as CEO confidence and stock market levels suggest could happen, GDP growth should easily exceed 2% and may even approach 3%. Despite all the recovery and improvement, the US economy only managed 1.6% growth in 2016. Regulatory rollback and reform is the one area of the new administration’s agenda most likely to advance in 2017, although not without controversy. These are the aspects President Trump can influence without needing Congressional approval, in many instances, and is more likely the most tangible, real, and immediate area that is causing the rise in business sector optimism. Even if there are small changes, the threat of sudden negative changes or complex new regulations is substantially reduced, such as the sudden change to the Department of Labor’s overtime compensation rules in 2016.

SMALLER DEALS AND OUTPERFORMING SECONDARY MARKETS TRENDS SET TO CONTINUE

A wide range of commercial real estate organizations have also begun intense lobbying on regulatory reforms due to the relaxed lending restrictions stemming from Dodd-Frank to energy use reporting provisions enacted by HUD in FHA multifamily lending. If these efforts are even somewhat successful, commercial property investors will have good reason to be optimistic. So far, commercial real estate has not yet felt the full impact of the Trump administration, rising stock prices and, even to some degree, long term interest rates. All evidence suggests that the commercial real estate industry is equally, if not more, optimistic than the general business community. CoStar, who issues monthly pricing indices for commercial real estate, reported that its value weighted index fell 0.9% in January, up 5.5% year over year, while its equally weighted index rose 1.4% that same month, up 7.5% year over year. The difference is due to the equally weighted index being more representative of secondary/tertiary markets and deals of smaller size. This trend of smaller deals and secondary markets outperforming core assets and primary markets looks highly likely to continue for 2017, especially if the confidence and optimism holds.

 

Commercial Real Estate Markets Expanding in 2017

Commercial real estate markets have been generally growing in terms of pricing, rental rates, and occupancies since approximately 2011 and many market participants are beginning to openly wonder where the market is in the “cycle”.

Since the topic of market cycles can be somewhat misunderstood, we want to offer some clarification before presenting our assessment. Some investors believe that markets experience cycles based on some uniform period of time; such as every “X” years. In reality, markets, such as those for commercial real estate, move from peaks to valleys based on changes in supply and demand and any observation of timing is purely coincidental. An asset will see a “peak” and then decline when supply exceeds demand and this is when investors should look at changes in fundamentals to determine the relative risks and rewards of their investment due to cyclical forces.

CRE Markets Remain Healthy in Early 2017

With data available through the end of 2016, it is easy to see that most commercial real estate asset types are in the middle of the expansion phase of the real estate cycle. These are periods of long term growth in rents and declines in vacancy. According to REIS, all four major real estate classes experienced rent growth in 2016; 3.6% for apartment, 2.0% for retail, 2.4% for office and 2.2% for industrial. Office and industrial markets are experiencing the most absorption and improvements in occupancies and thus appear “earliest” in the expansion phase with year-end vacancy rates of 15.8% and 10% respectively. Retail vacancy rates remained flat at 9.9%, which given the number of “big box” closures, is actually impressive and masks the reality that many retail properties are actually experiencing rental rate growth and near full occupancies. The apartment sector, which began 2016 as the most watched sector given its 1.8% increase in supply, ended at 4.2% vacancy which is unchanged from 2015. Early 2017 data from Yardi Matrix shows modest rent growth has resumed which when considered with the rate of job creation, actually suggests that the apartment sector is not anywhere near as oversupplied as some have feared. However, relatively speaking, it is certainly the “latest” in the expansion phase. Overall, in early 2017 the fundamentals of commercial real estate markets still appear to be relatively healthy. In addition, given the current growth and optimism in the economy, they have room left to run in most situations.

2016 Transaction Volume is 3rd for Highest Recorded CRE Sales Activity

Prices of commercial real estate are a result of interactions between space markets (supply and demand) and the capital markets (competition for investment dollars). According to Moody’s and Real Capital Analytics, commercial real estate prices grew 9% in 2016 for another record breaking year. However, transaction volume was down 11% in 2016, but the year still ranks third after 2015 and 2007 for highest recorded commercial real estate sales activity. Overall, increases in interest rates and the 2016 decline in sales volume suggest the capital markets may put less pressure on price growth in 2017 than in recent years. The question of what cap rates will do given recent rate rises remains open but early evidence suggests that spreads are compressing and cap rates have shown minimal increases, however, this is still “too early” to call.

As of mid-February 2017, the commercial real estate markets appear to remain in expansion mode and 2016 was by all measures, a great year. If growth sustains, as the stock market is suggesting with its setting of new record highs every so often, fundamentals of commercial real estate should keep on moving upward as well. Census Bureau data showed that 2016 was a year for growth in construction spending; up 7.8% for nonresidential (commercial) and up 4.5% for residential (includes apartments). Therefore, there is more new supply coming but all the data suggests there is more than sufficient demand to keep the market in balance and growing.

 

CRE is at a Crossroads by Diane K. Danielson, COO, SVN International Corp.

The commercial real estate industry enters 2017 at a crossroads. Baby boomer retirement will continue and may even accelerate due to economic headwinds, potential slowdowns in infrastructure projects, and the continued influx of new technologies and CRE challenges. As a result, our industry is facing a brain drain at the same time competing industries are embroiled in a war for talent. Yet, with every challenge comes opportunity.

In 2017, the CRE industry can rise to the challenge by becoming more proactive and inclusive of untraditional CRE professionals. Whether they are millennials, women or minorities, these professionals can bring with them a variety of background experiences, new and different job skills, expanded networks of influence, and a diverse array of leadership styles. Why is this important in 2017?

1. Major infrastructure improvements take long-term planning and patience.

As a nation, we need to focus on our infrastructure; but large-scale infrastructure projects take years to plan and complete. That process can last longer than any single economic cycle or government administration, and we need CRE professionals prepared to plan for them and see them through to completion.

Aerial view of fifth avenue2. Urbanization is happening across the country.

Our cities are experiencing unprecedented population growth. To handle this increase we are seeing a rise in place making, mixed-use, and urban infill developments that promote walkability and a live-work-play dynamic. The challenge is to resolve longstanding affordable housing and transportation issues. While we are also seeing a spillover urbanization effect in key suburbs, it’s this new group of urban professionals who are influencing the demographics and ultimately the design of our cities.

3. Smart buildings are evolving into smart cities.

This is the opportunity evolving out of the first two trends. Smart cities use digital technology to improve and sustain community life. Generally, smart city projects are very large, long-term investments that can help drive social change in an urban environment. This happens through the combination and the communication of data across the Internet of Things to improve efficiencies across power grids, transportation, and health and safety. The development and adaptation of buildings to support smart cities is going to be a key component of the CRE industry for years to come.

4. Climate change is already affecting CRE.

There is not a coastal municipality or Fortune 500 company that does not have a division focused on sustainability and the effects of climate change. This is especially a concern in cities like Boston where global headquarters are relocating into urban areas already marked as flood zones. Smart cities will need to incorporate innovative infrastructure design and the means to mitigate the effects of climate change. Existing buildings will have to be adapted not only to smart technology but to sustainability.

The combination of these four trends indicates the evolution of commercial real estate as an industry. CRE professionals today and in the future will draw upon a mix of STEM and social skills in order to best serve our clients and our communities. Our industry has a unique ability to impact the growth and development of our environments. As CRE professionals, we are the de facto stewards of our communities. As they change, we must change along with them.


Diane Danielson’s latest article, CRE is at a Crossroads, is featured in the special “2017 Outlook” section of the January 2017 digital edition of National Real Estate Investor®(NREI).

Commercial Real Estate Investors: How to Adjust to Rising Rates

Mortgage Rates Rise as Lenders React to Market Pressures

In response to a growing economy and inflation pressures, the bond markets, and now the Federal Reserve, appear positioned to support higher short term and long term interest rates. In a move that had been long anticipated, the Fed moved the target for the Fed Rates up 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75 % in December. It is expected that the Fed Rates could move two to three times more in 2017 depending on the rate of growth experienced this year. Prior to the Fed decision, long term bond rates moved in reaction to the election, with the 10-Year Treasury going form a three-month low of 1.74% to a three-month high of 2.60% in less than a month. Bond rates have since settled back below 2.40% as of January 17, 2017. This move represented a lot of pent up desire to sell bonds and buy stocks. Early indications are that mortgage rates, both residential and commercial, have moved in similar fashion as lenders quickly react to market pressures. This dynamic is likely to continue for much of 2017. If you invest in commercial real estate, here is how to adjust.

Future Growth in Economy, Jobs Could Increase Demand for Commercial Real Estate

First, realize that these moves in interest rates are related to the anticipation of good news, specifically, about the macro economy and to some extent stock prices. GDP has been reported to have grown at 3.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2016 before any potential “Trump” Man using a modern interfaceeffect could be measured. Job growth has mostly sustained at robust, consistent levels as unemployment sits at near full employment at 4.7%. Of course, the biggest impact has been stock equity prices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have risen approximately 10% since the election as a result of anticipated future growth. This future growth in the economy and jobs, if it materializes, will also mean increased demand for all types of commercial real estate, resulting in a possible rise of rental rates and occupancies.

Second, interest rates, assuming they continue to rise, are still far below long term averages. For historical reference, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury averaged 3.58% from 2001 through 2015, and they were much higher in the fifteen years prior. Through this same period of time leveraged private real estate averaged an annual total return of 13.71%, according to the Lakemont Group (analyzing NCREIF return data), beating the average annual return on REITs, 13.19%. Therefore, real estate has and can continue to perform well in higher rate environments.

Finally, rising rate environments require different management strategies than flat or falling rate environments. As inflation is the natural companion of rising interest rates, the ability to push rents upward over time should, in theory, be easier. Flat long term leases are not as advantageous, and will not create as much value on a relative basis. In general, the more realistic upside potential a property’s rent roll presents, the more it could be worth. On the other hand, expenses are likely to rise at a faster rate. Therefore, lease structures that pass expenses, or at least their annual growth, on to the tenant will result in better cash flow and higher valuations. There is also the issue of borrowing in a rising rate environment. For long term holds the answer seems simple – fix long term rates. In reality, it’s much more complex, as accepting a variable rate will result in the greatest present day savings, but with more long term risk. The spread between variable and fixed rates historically gets much wider when lenders expect rates to rise in the near and long term future. As counterintuitive as it sounds, it may actually be more prudent to borrow at variable rates today than before. As long as the property can grow rents and the tenants can absorb increases in expenses, cash flows may be higher, even for the long term.

Top 3 Reasons to Invest in the CRE Retail Sector in 2017

The retail real estate market, having long been the most segmented and divided sector of commercial real estate, was the most uniquely impacted in the last downturn and recovery. Grocery anchored neighborhood centers and free standing national credit retail properties have performed exceedingly well while regional malls, power centers, and non-anchored neighborhood strip centers have lagged in terms of price and rents. The slow economic recovery and ever growing share of e-commerce has made investment in retail real estate less desirable to sectors like multifamily and office. However, with this trend most likely changing in the next few years, retail may be one of the best investment opportunities for 2017. Here are three reasons this could be the case.

 

A beautiful new upscale shopping center with no tenants. Hang your own sign!

First, the economy may have now turned the corner and reentered a faster growth phase. GDP was last estimated to be growing at an annualized rate of 3.2% and unemployment has fallen to 4.6%. Retail sales continues to set new all-time records almost every month with annualized growth rates routinely near 3% according to the Census Bureau. As more people work due to the growing economy, they will have more money to spend. In fact, measures of consumer confidence, median household income, and total personal income have all shown strong growth and improvement in the last several months causing some to forecast yet another record breaking year for holiday sales. Regardless of online shopping, people are spending more at all types of retail establishments. Given that there has been a relatively low rate of new retail construction, it is almost unavoidable for retail rents and occupancies to rise resulting in the rising profitability of retail real estate investors. This rate of rent and occupancy growth may be the fastest of all property sectors in 2017 (at least for some markets).

 

Second, the retail landscape appears better equipped to compete in the new “digital” sales marketplace. Traditional retail tenants are now embracing an “omnichannel” approach, meaning dual focus on in-store and online sales, and recent research by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) indicates it is starting to show success. According to ICSC, 80% of Black Friday/Thanksgiving weekend shoppers made purchases at physical stores and 28% of those who purchased goods online opted to pick up the orders at a physical store (i.e. “site-to-store”) where 64% of those shopper made additional in-store purchases. Thus, the view that a store can be “online only” appears to be diminishing. In fact, even online giant Amazon is now actively seeking to open physical stores to facilitate order pick-up and enhance impulse purchases. In short, the storefront is not “dead”, just redesigned. Additionally, some categories such as home improvement, furniture, and restaurants cannot be easily moved online. All of these sectors are showing growth in sales and even store openings.

 

Office building with flowers and trees.

Third, many retail properties are located on great pieces of real estate in premier locations. There remain potential shortages for all types of commercial real estate including office, self-storage, heath care, and even apartments in many markets and sub-markets across the country. Retail sites are potentially the best redevelopment and repurposing sites in many in-fill markets. Retail can be converted to office/health care uses with very little costs; even self-storage is feasible for large vacant anchor spaces. Meanwhile, getting new sites approved for development is taking longer and costing more in many, if not most markets and, as municipalities seek to “beautify” older properties the redevelopment of existing buildings is getting relatively easier. Therefore, many retail sites, which are typically relatively low intensity uses, are actually easier to build on than raw, un-entitled land.

 

With an in-depth understanding of the local market, an investor can purchase a substantial income stream today with a potentially great exit strategy in the future. The key is creative vision and a good understanding of the micro forces in the sub-market (think location, location, location).

Los Angeles, CA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Industrial

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Industrial Market to Watch: Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles - top industrial market to watchLos Angeles is one of the largest, most dynamic cities in the United States and its economy has fully recovered, with a normalized level of unemployment at 5.5% as of January ‘16 and annualized total employment growth of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its industrial space market is one of the best performing in the nation due to the growth in container and freight traffic from the port as well as inbound air cargo from Asia. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is growing at an annualized rate of 1.7%, meaning that further growth and expansion is possible. Of course, the reliance on trade could cause a contraction in the industrial sector with global pressures, but this is unlikely as much of the trade and distribution are import goods that will benefit from a strong US dollar.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.

2016 Industrial Market Outlook

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Orlando, FL | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Orlando, FL

Orlando - top retail market to watchOrlando continues to be one of the fastest growing markets in the nation, fueled by record tourism and new business openings and relocations. Unemployment remains stable at 4.7% as new jobs are being created at a 4.9% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population has also boomed by 9.9% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau, creating the demand for more retail real estate. Top employment sectors include Construction, Professional and Business Services, Manufacturing, Educational and Health Services, and Leisure and Hospitality, with annualized growth rates of 14.5%, 8.6%, 7.3%, 4.6%, and 4.4%, respectively. This broad-based growth will enhance the health of the retail real estate sector in 2016 and beyond for both tourist-focused and resident-focused establishments.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Orlando, FL is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Denver, CO | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Office

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Office Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Office Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Office Market to Watch: Denver, CO

Denver - top office market to watchDenver remains one of the most rock-solid metropolitan economies in the nation with 3.0% unemployment in January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while maintaining steady, slow growth that has total employment at record highs. The office market is equally steady with a relatively low level of vacancy and fair asking rents. This stability and growth should persist in 2016 for the office sector as key employment groups – Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Information – are all showing strong-to-decent annualized growth of 3.9%, 3.2%, and 1.8%, respectively. Denver maintains a diversified set of economic base activities including aerospace, bioscience, and energy, just to name a few. As such, the office market is likely to withstand any negative impacts of global uncertainty and oil price declines for the foreseeable future.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Denver Commercial

SVN Advisors at SVN | Denver Commercial have some office market highlights to share:

  • Over 2 million square feet of newly delivered space is coming on the market, temporarily inflating vacancy rates.
  • Energy industry impact on office vacancy is significant as energy prices stay at their low prices. Sublet opportunities are up, and many energy company offices have closed completely. Vacancy rates have risen to mid-to-high teens.
  • Mixed use, co-work spaces continue to flourish, especially in the burgeoning CBD area. Conversion and re-purposing of old warehouses and factories is prevalent in the market.
  • Denver is creating jobs, with over 45,000 new positions in the last twelve months. Demand for office should rise concurrently with the job creation trend. Denver has become a desirable 18 hour city that attracts top talent in many industries.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top office markets, download the full version of the 2016 Office Market Outlook report here.

2016 Office Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Denver, CO is one of 2016’s top office #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Late Summer 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

2016 Continues to be a Year of Strong Performance in Commercial Real Estate

While macro-economic uncertainty and global instability may grab headlines, commercial real estate fundamentals and pricing continues to grow and expand according to second quarter results of major real estate data providers REIS, Inc. and CoStar Group. Overall with limited exceptions, all major sectors of commercial real estate experienced positive net absorption, declining vacancies, and positive rent growth in the second quarter of 2016, continuing a growth trend that has been in place for several years now according to REIS, Inc. The leading sector, in terms of rent growth, was multifamily with an approximate 1% growth in effective rents while office, industrial, and retail all experienced rates around 0.5%, which is just above estimated inflation. The improvements come as a result of sustained, stable new demand and limited new supply. In fact, REIS, Inc. reports that in the second quarter, completions of new apartment units, office space, and retail space fell in year over year measures as the overall pace of new construction slowed slightly. Census Bureau data also showed an overall rate of decline in volume for construction spending in all categories as well.

Slow and Steady Growth Through 2Q ’16

Thus, the markets are facing a continued dynamic of slow, but meaningful demand growth with relatively slower rates of new supply expansion; thus the result of higher rents and lower vacancies is entirely logical. Further, this condition of relative undersupply is only likely to get worse before getting better as capital markets remain constrained in financing new developments. So for now, tenants will be the losers and landlords the winners. Of course, the lack of quality, available vacant space in some markets is actually forcing firms to move markets to expand and thus causing some pain in some municipalities’ economic development initiates. Enterprising developers in certain markets may find great reward in speculative development at this stage of the cycle.

Pricing of commercial real estate assets also showed growth in the second quarter of 2016. CoStar Group reported a quarterly gain in pricing of 2% which represents a reversal from the first quarter which saw modest declines. CoStar’s value-weighted US Composite Index, which is more representative of large institutional grade assets, was up 3.3% quarter over quarter; while the equal-weighted US Composite Index, more inclusive of smaller properties, rose by only 2.1% in the second quarter. All property types were positive with apartments being the year over year leader at 8.5%. While all pricing results were positive, the rate of growth for 2016 is slower than 2015, but still pointing to the potential for 2016 to be a record-setting year.

Supply, Demand, and the Strengthening Job Market

The most recent quarterly results highlight the fact that supply and demand fundamentals are driving the commercial real estate markets despite turbulence in the capital markets, tightness in the lending environment, and even macro-economic slowdowns. Thus, it is logical to expect most markets to show resilience in the face of continued uncertainty. Of course, national job growth, which showed the initial signs of a slowdown, has rebounded back to strong positive growth in the past two months which is a positive indicator of real estate demand increasing in the near future. Overall, investors should be most concerned with monitoring localized oversupply or idiosyncratic demand pullbacks as the nation appears very stable and relatively healthy.

The next shoe to drop could be the Federal Reserve resuming their planned interest rate hikes given the positive hiring results of June and July. This could of course impact commercial real estate by raising cap rates and increasing the index rates of new loans. Since today’s cap rate spreads to treasury rates remain relatively wide, there need not be significant impact from such events but are nonetheless a source of risk, especially to pricing.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions throughout the US, read the 2016 Market Outlook Reports here.

CRE Market Outlook

Phoenix, AZ | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix - top multifamily market to watchPhoenix experienced significant gains in overall employment in 2015 that moved the number of jobs significantly above pre-recession peaks as unemployment fell to 4.6% in January ‘16 with continued annualized employment gains of 3.6%. The population grew by 6.2% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau, helping to fuel new demand for apartment units. The city utilizes approximately 46% of its housing units as rentals and has relative affordability with high quality of life making the market a prime one to grow in 2016 and beyond, with rents expected to grow over 5% this year. The leading employment sectors are Information, Construction, Financial Activities, Education and Health Services, and Professional and Business Services, growing at annualized rates of 7.6%, 6.3%, 5.3%, 5.2%, and 5.1%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Phoenix, AZ is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Knoxville, TN | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Industrial

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Industrial Market to Watch: Knoxville, TN

Knoxville - top industrial market to watchThe Knoxville economy is extremely steady given its diverse economic base and thus experienced relatively low effects of the recession. The city now has a 4.5% unemployment rate as of January ‘16, with overall employment growing at an annualized rate of 2.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industrial sectors of Knoxville are all showing marked strength, including Manufacturing and Trade, Transport, and Utilities growing at annualized rates of 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Additionally, the Mining, Logging, and Construction sector is growing at a rapid 10.2% annualized rate, further fueling the market. The mix of defense, research, and industrial manufacturers gives Knoxville strong power to grow its industrial real estate in 2016 and beyond.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.

2016 Industrial Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Knoxville, TN is one of 2016’s top industrial #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Nashville, TN | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Nashville, TN

Nashville - top retail market to watchNashville’s economy continues to boom, as employment sets new record highs with continued 4.0% annualized growth that has brought the unemployment rate to a low of 3.7% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This corresponds with a 6.7% increase in population from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. This growth is putting pressure on retail real estate as fundamentals improve in face of steady growth; a trend expected to persist in 2016 and beyond. The fastest growing employment sector is Mining, Logging, and Construction followed by Professional and Business Services, then Financial Activities and Information, with annualized growth rates of 9.4%, 8.7%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, respectively. This type of broad-based job growth is sure to boost all real estate sectors including retail.

Advisor Insights: SVN | The Genesis Group in Nashville, TN

SVN’s Nashville-based Advisors at SVN | The Genesis Group have some retail market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in Nashville’s retail market in 2016:

  • Strong demand for retail space
  • Declining vacancy
  • High rents
  • Competition for space
  • Very little inventory

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Nashville, TN is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Dallas, TX | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Office

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Office Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Office Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Office Market to Watch: Dallas, TX

Dallas - top office market to watchDallas remains one of the fastest growing employment centers in the nation, even with the energy price declines of 2015. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate sits near record lows at 3.8% as of January ‘16, with the city creating over a half million new jobs since the recession. The office markets have fared well, as key office sectors of Financial Activities and Professional and Business Services have grown at strong annualized rates of 4.8% and 2.3%, respectively. Information has remained fairly flat at 0.4% annualized growth. As Dallas has become a modern international city with the help of the DFW airport, it is perhaps the best positioned market in the oil-producing region of the U.S. to weather any pain from the petroleum industry. The office market should remain stable and growing in 2016 and beyond.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top office markets, download the full version of the 2016 Office Market Outlook report here.

2016 Office Market Outlook

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Philadelphia, PA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Philadelphia, PA

Philadelphia - top multifamily market to watchJob growth in Philadelphia has brought the city back above pre-recession employment levels as unemployment stays steady at 4.8% as of January ‘16 with modest annualized employment growth of 2.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population growth has been below the national average as the city only gained 2.2% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Accordingly, demand for new apartment units is modest compared to other metros of similar size; yet the city does have a relatively high use of housing units as rentals at approximately 47%. Philadelphia does have an advantage in affordability, especially compared with other East Coast metros, and thus has growth potential with rents forecast to grow by over 3% in 2016. The city’s top sectors for job growth include Mining, Logging, and Construction as well as Professional and Business Services where are expanding at annualized rates of 8.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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Greenville-Spartanburg, SC | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Industrial

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Industrial Market to Watch: Greenville-Spartanburg

Greenville-Spartanburg - top industrial market to watchThe Greenville-Spartanburg region has experienced significant gains in its labor force, and overall employment is growing at a 2.6% annualized rate with unemployment holding steady at 4.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Key industrial sectors of Trade, Transport, and Utilities and Manufacturing are growing at annualized rates of 2.6% and 1.3%, respectively, setting up the industrial market for gains in 2016 and beyond. As South Carolina is well located for distribution in the Southeast, connected to ports, and unfriendly to labor unions, it is likely to continue to see expansion in its industrial sectors including those of Greenville-Spartanburg. Low cost of living and operating costs also serve to boost overall business development.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.

2016 Industrial Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Greenville-Spartanburg, SC is one of 2016’s top industrial #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Miami, FL | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Miami, FL

Miami - top retail market to watchAfter facing a deep real estate and economic recession, Miami has fully recovered, has more employment than ever, and continues to grow at a 2.9% annualized pace, while unemployment remains stable at 5.2% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This growth has been led by a new construction boom fed by foreign investment that has construction jobs growing at a 10.5% annualized rate, making it the far and away fastest growing sector. Population has also grown by 7.8% from 2010 to 2015, according to the Census Bureau, and is expected to continue growing, fueling the need for more retail development. Miami’s joint tourism, retirement, and business growth should force rental rates up and vacancies down in the retail real estate sector for 2016 and beyond.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Miami, FL is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Charlotte, NC | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Charlotte, NC

Charlotte - top multifamily market to watchThe multifamily market in Charlotte has experienced strong growth in demand as the city has gained 10.1% in population from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. This has been fueled by significant job growth that has set new records substantially above pre-recession peaks, leading the present unemployment rate to sit at 5.3% as of January ‘16 with new job creation occurring at an annualized rate of 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Approximately 45% of the city’s housing stock is renter occupied. Thus, a good deal of the new population is likely to demand an apartment. Further, gross rents are below national averages, making Charlotte affordable and capable of seeing meaningful rent growth. New supply has grown approximately 4% in 2015 which will lower rent growth slightly in 2016, but still likely to be robust and above 4%. Many sectors are adding jobs at annualized rates above 4%, including Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Hospitality. However, this city does face a unique risk to continued growth from the new “bathroom” law, perceived very negatively by many; this could jeopardize new job growth and thus the market if firms choose to relocate or otherwise curtail operations in the state.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Charlotte, NC is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Dallas, TX | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Industrial

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Industrial Market to Watch: Dallas, TX

Dallas - top industrial market to watchThe Dallas economy remains one of the strongest of the major metros in the nation with unemployment at 3.8% as of January ‘16 and steadily rising total employment at a 3.4% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The fastest growing sector of employment in Dallas is an industrial space using Trade, Transport, and Utilities, which is growing at an annualized rate of 5.2%. This is the sector, where most of the 2016 and beyond gains in the industrial space market will be generated. Dallas has unparalleled airport and rail access making it an ideal business and distribution hub. In fact, the area surrounding the DFW airport is best poised to expand. Manufacturing is the weakest sector declining at a –1.6% annualized rate. This sector touches oil and gas production and exploration, and is thus most at risk for declines in 2016 and beyond.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.

2016 Industrial Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Dallas, TX is one of 2016’s top industrial #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Las Vegas, NV | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Las Vegas, NV

Las Vegas - top retail market to watchAs tourism growth has once again led Las Vegas to new heights in overall employment, the unemployment rate is still falling as it sits at 6.5% as of January ‘16 while jobs are being added at a 2.5% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Construction is the fastest growing employment sector at an 11.0% annualized rate followed by Education and Health Services at 8.1%. Las Vegas took a pause in population growth due to the recession but the pace is likely to grow in 2016 and beyond; still, the city grew by 5.0% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Growth in tourism will spur the need for tourist-focused retail in popular locations like The Strip; however, overall growth will also increase demand for retail to service the local population. Over time, Las Vegas is likely to diversify from tourism and become a more balanced economy.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Las Vegas, NV is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Cincinnati, OH | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Office

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Office Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Office Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Office Market to Watch: Cincinnati, OH

Cincinnati - top office market to watchCincinnati’s economy is still struggling to find a consistent growth trend as unemployment started the new year at 5.2%, up from 3.9% in August of ‘15, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Positive signs for the office market can be seen in Financial Activities and Information, which are growing at annualized rates of 3.6% and 2.2%, respectively; however the key office-using sector of Professional and Business Services is losing ground with –1.6% growth. Overall, the run of consolidations in industries such as banking, legal firms, etc. has still left Cincinnati with relatively high vacancies and lower lease rates. As the national economy grows, these relative pricing advantages should position Cincinnati to gain new tenants and users looking to locate in the region.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Commercial Realty Advisors, Inc.

SVN’s Cincinnati-based Advisors at SVN | Commercial Realty Advisors, Inc. have some office market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in the Cincinnati office market in 2016:

  • Continued rise in absorption
  • Declining vacancy rate
  • Continued recovery and stabilization

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top office markets, download the full version of the 2016 Office Market Outlook report here.

2016 Office Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Cincinnati, OH is one of 2016’s top office #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Denver, CO | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Denver, CO

Denver - top multifamily market to watchThe Denver multifamily market has experienced significant additions of new supply as its population has grown 10.6% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Further, the employment market is outstanding with 3.0% unemployment as of January ‘16 and annualized job growth of 2.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Denver features a larger renter population with approximately 50% of its metro’s housing units used for rental purposes; still rental rates are relatively affordable for a metro of its size, giving it room to grow. Top sectors for employment growth include Leisure and Hospitality, Financial Activities, Manufacturing, and Professional and Business Services growing at annualized rates of 6.0%, 3.9%, 3.5%, and 3.2%, respectively. As such, rent growth could hit 7% in 2016.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Denver Commercial

SVN’s Advisors at SVN | Denver Commercial have some multifamily market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in Denver’s multifamily market in 2016:

  • As population grows, (over 100,000 additional people since 2014), demand grows likewise for multifamily.
  • Household formation is growing with a younger demographic makeup in Denver. The CBD area alone now is housing a population of 90,000 residents, mostly in multifamily buildings.
  • Rents have risen significantly over the past few years but are now reaching affordability limits.
  • Renters are demanding fully amenitized properties when higher rents are asked by landlords.
  • Expect to see more micro-apartments to address affordability issues, especially in the CBD area.
  • Vacancy rates are now approaching more “normalized” conditions of 5-7%, versus virtually nil in the last couple years. This is due to increased delivery of new apartment units to the region, somewhat outpacing demand.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Denver, CO is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Charlotte, NC | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Charlotte, NC

Charlotte - top retail market to watchCharlotte has expanded its employment base steadily since the recession bottomed in 2010 and currently has a relatively low 5.3% unemployment rate, as of January ‘16, and 2.8% annualized growth of new jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The region has also grown population by 10.1% from 2010 to 2014 according to the Census Bureau, making it prime for expansion and development of retail real estate. Major growing employment segments include Mining, Logging, and Construction, Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality with 6.4%, 4.8%, and 4.6% annualized growth, respectively. As Charlotte continues to be a popular place to work and live, more firms are likely to enter the market, including those seeking to establish corporate headquarters. Despite these positive forces, North Carolina’s recently enacted “bathroom law” threatens to reverse economic growth as businesses and consumers look elsewhere to avoid the perceived discriminatory law; this could cause pain to the retail sector for the rest of 2016 and beyond if not fixed.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Percival Partners in Charlotte, NC

SVN’s Charlotte-based Advisors at SVN | Percival Partners have some retail market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in Charlotte’s retail market in 2016:

  • Increasing property values
  • Ongoing new development of grocery anchored centers
  • New grocery stores entering the market
  • Target will start expanding again
  • Continue to see high demand for investment properties

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Charlotte, NC is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Atlanta, GA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Office

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Office Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Office Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Office Market to Watch: Atlanta, GA

Screen Shot 2016-07-26 at 4.09.42 PMAtlanta has experienced strong gains in total employment and is setting record highs as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with unemployment at 5.2% and new job creation at an annualized rate of 3.5%. This includes growth in key office-using sectors including Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Education and Health Services, which grew at annualized rates 5.0%, 2.0%, and 1.8%, respectively. In addition, Construction employment is growing at a 7.4% annualized rate, indicating further overall economic growth is projected to occur in Atlanta in 2016 and beyond. According to Georgia Trend, many high impact industries are likely to accelerate growth in Atlanta including life sciences and technology. These forces should cause rising rental rates and falling vacancies in the metro region, with downtown/midtown potentially poised to gain in the overall trend of urbanization affecting cities such as Atlanta.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top office markets, download the full version of the 2016 Office Market Outlook report here.

2016 Office Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Atlanta, GA is one of 2016’s top office #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Boston, MA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Boston, MA

Boston top multifamily marketBoston’s economy has experienced significant job growth such that its unemployment rate is now 4.0% as of January ‘16 and new jobs are being created at a 1.4% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further, population has grown 6.2% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau, and has thus significantly increased the demand for rental housing in the metropolitan region. Bostonians are highly predisposed to renting as over 65% of the housing units in the city are rentals according to Census data; thus prolonged population and job growth will place great pressure on rents which could grow over 6% in 2016 and keep occupancies above 97% while new supply is likely to remain less than 2% . The top sectors for job growth include Financial Activities and Education and Health Services which are growing at 3.1% and 2.9% annualized rates, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Boston, MA is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Albuquerque, NM | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Industrial

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Industrial Market to Watch: Albuquerque, NM

Albuquerque top industrial marketAlbuquerque’s overall economy has remained fairly stable with a slowly falling, above national average level of unemployment at 5.8% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Key industrial sectors have been losing employees and thus may threaten to soften the industrial space market; these include Manufacturing and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities which are contracting at –2.5% and –0.9% annualized rates, respectively. As much of the economic and industrial base of Albuquerque centers on high tech, research, defense, and other manufacturing, the industrial sector should remain very stable on a relative basis. Given low levels of new supply, growth in fundamentals could also occur in 2016 as the market is not over-supplied.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.

2016 Industrial Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Albuquerque, NM is one of 2016’s top industrial #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Austin, TX | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Retail

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Retail Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Retail Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Retail Market to Watch: Austin, TX

Austin - top retail market to watchRetail real estate should perform well in Austin in 2016 and beyond, as this dynamic economy continues to grow and diversify. According to the Census Bureau, the population of Austin has grown 12.5% from 2010 to 2014. Not surprisingly, the economy looks stellar with a 3.2% unemployment rate as of January ‘16 and jobs are growing at 4.7% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The best sectors for job growth are Mining, Logging, and Construction and Leisure and Hospitality, growing at 11.0% and 9.2% annualized rates, respectively. These forces will keep new residents locating in the metro region and businesses expanding. Retail demand will follow the population and should continue expanding in 2016 with ever-increasing fundamentals.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Tamarack in Austin, TX

SVN’s Austin-based Advisors at SVN | Tamarack have some retail market highlights to share:

Gateway Cities like Austin continue to benefit from diverse job creation ranging from service jobs to higher-end STEM (science, technology, engineering and math). It remains an attractive place to live for all generations. Due to the continued numbers of people moving to Austin all property types are attractive but retail properties will continue to be the most favorable investment type.

Austin has a tight market for space so we will see most new construction in sub-markets of Austin such as Lakeway, Leander and Cedar Park.

  • With average rental rates averaging $20 – $23.50 per square foot, rates are expected to increase by more than 4% by the end of 2016.
  • Values in the retail market are expected to increase by 2% – 3.9% by year end.
  • Absorption has been positive for the previous five years and is expected to increase to an estimated 350,000 square feet within 2016. With slightly more than 300,000 square feet of retail space expected to be constructed by the end of 2016 the occupancy rate will also increase above its current 94% rate. Retail properties that are under construction, planned and proposed represent a 3% growth to the current Austin market.
  • Cap rates are currently 6.8% – 7% and are expected to stay relatively flat for the next 6 months.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top retail markets, download the full version of the 2016 Retail Market Outlook report here.

2016 Retail Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Austin, TX is one of 2016’s top retail #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Early Summer 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

Investing in Commercial Real Estate for Stability

Present economic conditions are teetering on the edge of flat to very slow growth causing rising fears of a sustained slowdown. The catalysts of these issues are reductions in employment and investment in energy production and a general tapering of demand from overseas. The result to the United States as of June 2016 has been three months of below 200,000 hiring (only 38,000 in May), below 1% GDP growth (0.8% annualized in latest first quarter estimates), and flat growth of corporate profits. Not surprisingly, some investors are worried.

Charlotte - July Economic Update
Charlotte, NC

Those making the jump to say that slow economic growth equals a real estate downturn, or even the feared “bubble” should stop and take stock of the fundamentals. Occupancy rates for all major categories of commercial real estate, even apartments, are stable and improving nationwide. In fact, a recent Yardi Matrix report even states that the “worst” major metro it tracks is Houston, and its apartment occupancy rate is still 94.7% where energy price pains are the worst. Rents are generally still growing for all property types as well, even apartments. This point was also made clear by the same Yardi Matrix report stated that nationwide rents hit another all-time record high in May of $1,204 per month. If rents are rising and so are occupancies, then there is one simple conclusion; demand is still outpacing supply. That is a buying sign, not a selling sign, all else equal.

Supply Not Matching Increasing Demand

New supply, which has increased in the past few years, especially in the multifamily sector, may have trouble expanding in the future. Lenders appear increasingly stringent in providing development financing and labor and construction costs are not predicted to slow their perpetual increases. In fact, the internal, less discussed measures from the government jobs report show that hourly labor costs rose 3.9% in the first quarter. Thus, it appears that a part of the slowing pace of hiring is a cost constraint; not necessarily a falling demand issue. Developers of real estate have known this pain for years; they repeatedly tell stories of projects delayed and slowed due to labor shortages. For the commercial real estate market, this means that the supply and demand balance is likely to remain in favor of landlords, even if user demand cools moderately.

Those considering investing in real estate should look at these facts; solid fundamentals, low levels of new supply, and low interest rates when analyzing the next acquisition. Yes, it should be noted, that one great benefit of tepid economic indicators is remaining low interest and borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve is far less likely to push interest rate increases in 2016 than earlier thought and borrowers should take advantage of this. Plus, the real return to bonds and stocks is likely to drag lower compared to real estate, especially when considering the global exposure of many publicly traded companies. Real estate can provide a real income yield, supply and demand suggests that it can grow, and best yet, it can grow with inflation when and if it starts back up. Real estate offers income and stability in these types of economic climates; even REITs have outperformed the general stock market in 2016 to prove the point.

Investors Seeking Affordable Stability

Austin - Economic Update
Austin, TX

There is one theme that investors should keep mind, that is “affordability.” Rents can only rise as high as incomes (personal or business) can support. Growth patterns show people and firms moving from high-rent “24 hour” cities (New York, San Francisco, Los Angles for example) to lower rent “18 hour” cities (Nashville, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Austin for example). Thus, while the major markets have been the leaders in the past few years, it’s logical to expect the “secondary” markets to be the relative winners for the next several years. If a property provides great value and utility at a relative “affordable” price point; then it is best positioned to provide stability in all economic environments.

In conclusion, it would be a mistake to equate minor economic jitters with impending doom, as many on television like to do. The United States went through a significant downturn from 2008 through 2012, but frankly hasn’t grown that fast since. Thus, the economy really is not possibly “overheated” as it was last time. Since commercial real estate is undersupplied on a relative basis, it may actually be one of the best investment categories in the near to long term; a totally different starting point than in 2008.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions, read the SVN Commercial Real Estate Cooperation Report here.

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