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Tampa, FL | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Tampa, FL

Tampa has recovered significantly after experiencing deep impacts from the recession and is now growing jobs at an annualized pace of 3.6% with an unemployment rate of 4.8% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job growth also helped sustain population growth of 6.8% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. This growth has caused the multifamily sector in Tampa to expand with growing rents, falling occupancies, and lots of new supply. 2016 should bring approximately 5% rent growth with stable occupancy levels. The city is approximately 50% rental housing based and should demand more units as economic expansion continues. Top sectors for employment growth include Construction, Professional and Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Financial Activities which have annualized growth rates of 7.1%, 7.1%, 6.6%, 3.4%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

 

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Seattle, WA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Seattle, WA

Seattle - Top Multifamily Market to WatchSeattle is one of the fastest growing cities on the West Coast, with a population that grew 9.8% from 2010 to 2014, according the Census Bureau. Job growth continues at an annualized pace of 3.0% while unemployment has been stable with the latest reading in January ‘16 of 5.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seattle is an expensive city to live in and as such approximately 54% of the housing units are rentals, according to the Census Bureau. The need for ample housing is real and multifamily assets should perform well for 2016 and beyond. Rents are expected grow over 5% as new supply hits record highs to fill new demand. The best sectors for job creation include Information, Leisure and Hospitality, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, and Financial Activities, which are growing at 8.1%, 5.0%, 4.2%, and 4.1% annualized rates, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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San Jose, CA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: San Jose, CA

San Jose - Top Multifamily Market to WatchSan Jose is one of the hottest cities in the Bay Area and thus has experienced very strong employment growth since 2011 which has brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9% as of January ‘16 while jobs are still being created at the robust pace of 3.8% annualized according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population growth is also significant at 6.6% from 2010 to 2014 as people find this market relatively more affordable. The San Jose housing stock is traditionally owner oriented with only 43% used for rentals. Given the rate of regional growth, local multifamily assets are very well positioned to pick up demand from surrounding areas a well as localized growth. Rent growth is expected to exceed 5% with relatively low new supply in 2016. Top sectors in job creation include Construction, Information, and Professional and Business Services with annualized growth rates of 10.3%, 8.4%, and 6.8%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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Reno, NV | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Reno, NV

Reno - top multifamily markets to watchReno is experiencing sustained gains in employment with a 4.4% annualized rate after being severely impacted by the past recession; unemployment has improved dramatically and now sits at a still relatively high 6.2% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population has grown robustly with a 4.9% increase from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. As is common with tourist market economies, the percentage of city housing used for rental purposes is high at 53% meaning that job growth will quickly mean growth for the multifamily sector. The city’s economy is rapidly diversifying with the biggest gains coming from Construction, Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Education and Health Services with annualized growth rates of 9.6%, 9.5%, 5.2%, and 5.0%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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Portland, OR | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Portland, OR

Portland, OR - top multifamily market to watchPortland has experienced rapid employment growth in 2015, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.7% as of January ‘16 while sustaining new job creation at a rate of 3.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population in the city grew by 6.1% between 2010 and 2014 according to the Census Bureau who also reports that approximately 47% of the housing stock is used for rentals. Portland is a relatively high priced market for the nation but still affordable for a major West Coast metro with an excellent quality of life. Leading employment sectors include Information, Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health Services growing at 9.4%, 4.6%, and 4.5% respective annualized rates. These dynamics should lead to strong performance of the multifamily sector in 2016 and beyond with rents growing over 10% this year as new supply remains relatively moderate.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Bluestone & Hockley

SVN’s Portland-based Advisors at SVN | Bluestone & Hockley have some multifamily market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in Portland’s multifamily market in 2016:

  • More units coming online
  • Price leveling off
  • More outside of the market investors coming in

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Portland, OR is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Philadelphia, PA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Philadelphia, PA

Philadelphia - top multifamily market to watchJob growth in Philadelphia has brought the city back above pre-recession employment levels as unemployment stays steady at 4.8% as of January ‘16 with modest annualized employment growth of 2.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Population growth has been below the national average as the city only gained 2.2% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Accordingly, demand for new apartment units is modest compared to other metros of similar size; yet the city does have a relatively high use of housing units as rentals at approximately 47%. Philadelphia does have an advantage in affordability, especially compared with other East Coast metros, and thus has growth potential with rents forecast to grow by over 3% in 2016. The city’s top sectors for job growth include Mining, Logging, and Construction as well as Professional and Business Services where are expanding at annualized rates of 8.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Philadelphia, PA is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Charlotte, NC | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Charlotte, NC

Charlotte - top multifamily market to watchThe multifamily market in Charlotte has experienced strong growth in demand as the city has gained 10.1% in population from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. This has been fueled by significant job growth that has set new records substantially above pre-recession peaks, leading the present unemployment rate to sit at 5.3% as of January ‘16 with new job creation occurring at an annualized rate of 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Approximately 45% of the city’s housing stock is renter occupied. Thus, a good deal of the new population is likely to demand an apartment. Further, gross rents are below national averages, making Charlotte affordable and capable of seeing meaningful rent growth. New supply has grown approximately 4% in 2015 which will lower rent growth slightly in 2016, but still likely to be robust and above 4%. Many sectors are adding jobs at annualized rates above 4%, including Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Hospitality. However, this city does face a unique risk to continued growth from the new “bathroom” law, perceived very negatively by many; this could jeopardize new job growth and thus the market if firms choose to relocate or otherwise curtail operations in the state.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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Denver, CO | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Denver, CO

Denver - top multifamily market to watchThe Denver multifamily market has experienced significant additions of new supply as its population has grown 10.6% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Further, the employment market is outstanding with 3.0% unemployment as of January ‘16 and annualized job growth of 2.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Denver features a larger renter population with approximately 50% of its metro’s housing units used for rental purposes; still rental rates are relatively affordable for a metro of its size, giving it room to grow. Top sectors for employment growth include Leisure and Hospitality, Financial Activities, Manufacturing, and Professional and Business Services growing at annualized rates of 6.0%, 3.9%, 3.5%, and 3.2%, respectively. As such, rent growth could hit 7% in 2016.

Advisor Insights: SVN | Denver Commercial

SVN’s Advisors at SVN | Denver Commercial have some multifamily market highlights to share. Here’s what to look out for in Denver’s multifamily market in 2016:

  • As population grows, (over 100,000 additional people since 2014), demand grows likewise for multifamily.
  • Household formation is growing with a younger demographic makeup in Denver. The CBD area alone now is housing a population of 90,000 residents, mostly in multifamily buildings.
  • Rents have risen significantly over the past few years but are now reaching affordability limits.
  • Renters are demanding fully amenitized properties when higher rents are asked by landlords.
  • Expect to see more micro-apartments to address affordability issues, especially in the CBD area.
  • Vacancy rates are now approaching more “normalized” conditions of 5-7%, versus virtually nil in the last couple years. This is due to increased delivery of new apartment units to the region, somewhat outpacing demand.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

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Mid Summer 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

Discerning Solid Demand Drivers from Fads in Commercial Real Estate

As economic data suggest the US macro economy is just slowly growing, 1.2% annualized GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 as a prime example, it is worthy to question the source of sustained demand growth for commercial real estate. Overall, commercial real estate prices are at or near all-time highs according to Real Capital Analytics and occupancies are generally near normal peaks. Thus, it is anticipated that many investors and market participants will begin or have begun to question where commercial real estate is in the proverbial “cycle” and if some form of a downturn is probable for the future. While it is difficult to forecast the future, determining whether present property fundamentals and pricing is a result of solid demand drivers or just potentially fleeting “fads” is highly worthwhile and more important for long-term investment decisions.

Demographic Waves Driving Commercial Real Estate Demand

In real estate, demand trends are ultimately governed by demographics. There are two major demographic waves that will persist for years to come. First, the rising of the Millennials and second, the aging of the population (also known as the Baby Boomer bust). While this is hardly a new topic of conversation in the real estate industry, some of its most primary implications to core demand seem lost during said “cycle” discussions. To illustrate why these discussions must be merged, a simple snapshot of 30-year-olds in America is presented courtesy of data from the US Census Bureau. In 1975, 71% of 30-year-olds had married, had a child, completed schooling, and had moved out of their parents’ house; as of 2015 the number of 30-year-olds meeting all four criteria had fallen to 32%. Further, this trend is worsening and not likely to reverse anytime soon. Now, given that data, consider where a rational person who is unmarried, childless, and potentially in school is going to live when they finally move out of their family home – clearly the answer is in rental housing. Thus, those analyzing the apartment sector without considering the impact of such changing demographics are more likely to see oversupply, when in fact the actual condition for some markets is undersupply.

Demand drivers - apartment buildingsA similar story regarding the aging of America can also be made using Census data which shows that the percentage of the population over 65 will go from less than 14% in 2010 to almost 22% by 2030. Now, consider the prototypical 65-year-old household; it will likely be childless (at least under the age of 18) with just one to two adults with potentially limited income. With a little creative analysis, it is apparent that the prototypical Millennial household (i.e., a single person or two adult individuals with limited income) is actually quite economically similar to the Baby Boomer household. Further, while not identical, both will have somewhat similar demands for real estate. Thus, the ever insatiable demand for multifamily, certain types of retail, and other properties seems far more logical when all sources of demand are considered. In short, apartments are doing well today, in both fundamentals and pricing, because they benefit from solid demand drivers; meaning those not likely to deteriorate in the short term and most likely to persist for the long term.

Finding True Demand Drivers Across Product Types

When analyzing all other sectors such as office, industrial, retail, and hospitality, it is equally important to assess how “solid” the demand drivers are for those sectors’ product. E-commerce appears very “solid” and thus its impacts on retail and industrial are likely to persist as well. For the contrarian example, consider trends in co-working, clustered work spaces, and other trends in office space; they may all end up being a “fad”, as they are not backed by a solid demand driver. Thus, savvy investors do not spend time assessing “cycles”, they spend time discerning true demand drivers from fads. Most, if not all, “bubbles” that burst are fads being discontinued. This includes the housing “bubble” of the 2000’s; the “fad” was mom and pop investors buying multiple houses just to flip, even though they could never live in or afford them as rentals.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions throughout the US, read the 2016 Market Outlook Reports here.

CRE Market Outlook

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Boston, MA | 2016 Top #CRE Markets to Watch: Multifamily

SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.

Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Boston, MA

Boston top multifamily marketBoston’s economy has experienced significant job growth such that its unemployment rate is now 4.0% as of January ‘16 and new jobs are being created at a 1.4% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further, population has grown 6.2% from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau, and has thus significantly increased the demand for rental housing in the metropolitan region. Bostonians are highly predisposed to renting as over 65% of the housing units in the city are rentals according to Census data; thus prolonged population and job growth will place great pressure on rents which could grow over 6% in 2016 and keep occupancies above 97% while new supply is likely to remain less than 2% . The top sectors for job growth include Financial Activities and Education and Health Services which are growing at 3.1% and 2.9% annualized rates, respectively.

Stay Updated…

Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.

To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.

2016 Multifamily Market Outlook

[bctt tweet=”Boston, MA is one of 2016’s top multifamily #CRE markets to watch.” username=”svnic”]

Multifamily Market Outlook for 2013

It’s a great time to be in the multifamily commercial real estate business.

The 2008-2011 downturn in the economy caused fundamental changes in all product types but none more significant than it the multifamily business.  The multifamily business ground to a halt with the glut of foreclosed homes and with the stagnation in mortgage lending brought on by the demise of the CMBS market.  As lending started to thaw the GSA’s stepped up to fill the gap.  FNMA and FHLMC have started lending again. HUD has really never been out of the market, although it may seems that way since getting a new HUD loan can take 18 months or longer.

As rents dropped and vacancies increased with the rising unemployment rate, apartments took a beating.  Values dropped precipitously due to deteriorating fundamentals leaving most owners underwater with their mortgages.  Lenders initially were in shock and not interested in either working out the loans or foreclosing on the loans.

The downturn caused developers to stop building both apartments and single-family homes.  As home foreclosures rose, the market was spooked by “shadow inventory,” but that excess inventory did not materialize.

At present, nationally, the picture continues to brighten for multifamily.  Lenders are loosening up lending standards for multifamily and FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC are lending again.

Multifamily fundamentals continue to improve and lenders are clearing their shelves of product, although very slowly.  As the economy continues to improve, vacancies and concessions are improving.  Rents in many markets are increasing due to lack of new product and the absorption of single family homes.  Cap rates are returning to 2005/2006/2007 levels although at lower income levels.

The outlook for 2013 is that it is a good time to buy multifamily (if you can find the product).

Prepared by:

David Baird
David Baird, Sperry Van Ness Nevada, LLC.

David Baird

Multifamily Product Council Chair

Sperry Van Ness Nevada, LLC

Las Vegas, NV

 

*All Sperry Van Ness® offices are independently owned and operated.