SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Industrial Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Industrial Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.
Top Industrial Market to Watch: St. Louis, MO
The St. Louis economy has experienced strong growth since the recession and now features a 5.2% unemployment rate as of January ‘16 with modest job growth of 1.2% annualized. The diverse economic base includes manufacturing of food and agricultural products that are relatively immune to cyclical forces and thus stabilize the St. Louis industrial space market. Still, the key industrial sector of Manufacturing is losing jobs at a 1.3% annualized pace while Trade, Transportation, and Utilities grows at a nearly flat rate of 0.3% annualized. Overall, the stable nature of the industries operating in St. Louis, many with corporate HQs, and its strong river, rail, and air linkages should allow its industrial market to remain healthy in 2016 and beyond.
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Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.
To read more on other top industrial markets, download the full version of the 2016 Industrial Market Outlook report here.
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Seattle has experienced significant job growth since the recession and continues to add jobs at an annualized rate of 3.0%, keeping unemployment stable at 5.6% as of January ‘16, according to the BLS. As Seattle hosts major West Coast ports, a major airport, and excellent rail linkages, trade and distribution activities dominate the industrial real estate market. Employment in the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is growing at an annualized rate of 4.2%, making up for losses in the Manufacturing sector that is contracting at an annualized rate of –0.9%. Overall, the Puget Sound ports and infrastructure should drive robust demand for industrial real estate as more and more ship traffic is routed up north from congested Long Beach, California.
The Pittsburgh economy has more or less stabilized after the recession and massive losses to its manufacturing and steel production base. Today the unemployment rate sits at 5.5% as of January ‘16 but job creation is effectively flat at a literal 0.0% rate of growth. The industrial real estate market of Pittsburgh is highly influenced by oil and gas production as well as the steel industry, both of which have potential to see long-term losses. Key industrial sectors are losing jobs, including Manufacturing and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities which are declining at annualized rates of –3.4% and –0.4%, respectively. Thankfully, Pittsburgh is transforming itself into a more research and high-tech focused economy which should grow overall jobs and ultimately benefit the industrial sector. Further, this trend should cause more vacant industrial buildings to be repurposed and redeveloped, helping industrial landlords overall.
The Memphis economy has been slowly growing and recovering since the recession and stands today with 5.6% unemployment as of January ‘16, with modest annualized job gains of 1.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its strongest industrial segment and in fact strongest employment segment overall is Trade, Transport, and Utilities, which is expanding at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Manufacturing is also adding jobs at 0.7%. Given that Memphis is located in the approximate population weighted center of the country, it is an ideal location to serve for e-commerce and other direct to consumer distribution businesses. Thus, the Memphis industrial market may be one of the largest benefactors of the rise of online shopping and will likely continue to expand in 2016 and beyond.
Los Angeles is one of the largest, most dynamic cities in the United States and its economy has fully recovered, with a normalized level of unemployment at 5.5% as of January ‘16 and annualized total employment growth of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its industrial space market is one of the best performing in the nation due to the growth in container and freight traffic from the port as well as inbound air cargo from Asia. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is growing at an annualized rate of 1.7%, meaning that further growth and expansion is possible. Of course, the reliance on trade could cause a contraction in the industrial sector with global pressures, but this is unlikely as much of the trade and distribution are import goods that will benefit from a strong US dollar.
The Knoxville economy is extremely steady given its diverse economic base and thus experienced relatively low effects of the recession. The city now has a 4.5% unemployment rate as of January ‘16, with overall employment growing at an annualized rate of 2.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industrial sectors of Knoxville are all showing marked strength, including Manufacturing and Trade, Transport, and Utilities growing at annualized rates of 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Additionally, the Mining, Logging, and Construction sector is growing at a rapid 10.2% annualized rate, further fueling the market. The mix of defense, research, and industrial manufacturers gives Knoxville strong power to grow its industrial real estate in 2016 and beyond.
The Greenville-Spartanburg region has experienced significant gains in its labor force, and overall employment is growing at a 2.6% annualized rate with unemployment holding steady at 4.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Key industrial sectors of Trade, Transport, and Utilities and Manufacturing are growing at annualized rates of 2.6% and 1.3%, respectively, setting up the industrial market for gains in 2016 and beyond. As South Carolina is well located for distribution in the Southeast, connected to ports, and unfriendly to labor unions, it is likely to continue to see expansion in its industrial sectors including those of Greenville-Spartanburg. Low cost of living and operating costs also serve to boost overall business development.
The Dallas economy remains one of the strongest of the major metros in the nation with unemployment at 3.8% as of January ‘16 and steadily rising total employment at a 3.4% annualized rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The fastest growing sector of employment in Dallas is an industrial space using Trade, Transport, and Utilities, which is growing at an annualized rate of 5.2%. This is the sector, where most of the 2016 and beyond gains in the industrial space market will be generated. Dallas has unparalleled airport and rail access making it an ideal business and distribution hub. In fact, the area surrounding the DFW airport is best poised to expand. Manufacturing is the weakest sector declining at a –1.6% annualized rate. This sector touches oil and gas production and exploration, and is thus most at risk for declines in 2016 and beyond.
Albuquerque’s overall economy has remained fairly stable with a slowly falling, above national average level of unemployment at 5.8% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Key industrial sectors have been losing employees and thus may threaten to soften the industrial space market; these include Manufacturing and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities which are contracting at –2.5% and –0.9% annualized rates, respectively. As much of the economic and industrial base of Albuquerque centers on high tech, research, defense, and other manufacturing, the industrial sector should remain very stable on a relative basis. Given low levels of new supply, growth in fundamentals could also occur in 2016 as the market is not over-supplied.
The drivers of the industrial sector’s headline performance numbers are varied. Breaking a pattern of decline that began in the 1980s, increasing manufacturing activity and employment since the end of the recession have supported the absorption of a wide range of heavy and light manufacturing spaces. That trend coincides with continued growth in shipping volumes, both on a large scale at the nation’s deep-water ports and along the “last mile” where fulfillment centers are allowing online retailers to shorten delivery times in major metropolitan areas.
