Sperry Van Ness International Corporation’s (SVNIC) 2015 Market Update Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2015. Today we are delving into the 2015 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2015 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.
Top Multifamily Market to Watch: San Francisco, CA
San Francisco’s tech industry is booming, bringing with it jobs, rental households, and multifamily investment dollars. In spite of new development, the city still ranks as one of the most expensive (if not the most expensive) places to live in the United States. Chandan Economics reports that rents for mortgage-backed properties increased at a double-digit pace in 2014. Across the multifamily inventory, the average apartment rent was nearly $3,000. Prospects for income growth are well-capitalized into the market’s aggressive pricing; domestic and cross-border investors ready to pay a premium for liquidity are best prepared to navigate around buying opportunities.
The influx of young well-paid tech workers and the reach of development into new neighborhoods are not without their problems, as many long-time residents of San Francisco have found themselves on the losing side of gentrification. Affordability remains a concern for San Francisco residents and the stringent rent-control regulations remain bothersome for developers looking for short-term value-add investments. San Francisco should see 10,000 new units delivered before the end of 2015. The strong demand side fundamentals of the local economy should absorb the new supply easily. Among the notable projects, approvals are now in place for Parkmerced in the Outer Sunset. The first phase includes more than 1,500 units and will eventually rise to nearly 9,000 apartments. Lennar’s Hunters Point Shipyard-Candlestick Point redevelopment, which will produce 478 affordable and 755 market-rate units, is also underway, with the first affordable units expected in 2016.
To read more on San Francisco and other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2015 Multifamily Market Update report here.
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The drivers of the industrial sector’s headline performance numbers are varied. Breaking a pattern of decline that began in the 1980s, increasing manufacturing activity and employment since the end of the recession have supported the absorption of a wide range of heavy and light manufacturing spaces. That trend coincides with continued growth in shipping volumes, both on a large scale at the nation’s deep-water ports and along the “last mile” where fulfillment centers are allowing online retailers to shorten delivery times in major metropolitan areas.
Never in the recent history of the American economy has it taken so long to recover the jobs lost over the course of a downturn. That milestone was reached in 2014, more than 6 years after the Great Recession first took hold. Employers added more than 3 million jobs over the year, finally recouping losses from the crisis-era cull in the strongest showing for job creation since the dot-com boom.
Charlotte is generally well-regarded for its healthy office market and, having recovered substantially from the financial crisis, is drawing retailers with an eye for its improving employment and consumer outlook. With falling retail vacancy rates and only modest levels of construction, market fundamentals are poised to strengthen through 2015 and 2016. Across all retail subtypes, Chandan Economics reports the market vacancy rate for mortgage-financed properties fell below 7% in the fourth quarter of 2014. As compared to a year earlier, the pace of rent growth nearly doubled during 2014.
momentum in the sector’s otherwise prodding recovery. Over the next year, many of those investors will see their patience rewarded. A stronger consumer and a healthy uptick in lease signings, a dearth of new supply, and a growing appreciation for shoppers’ changing tastes are poised to lift occupancy rates and rents for well-located, well-tenanted, and well-managed properties. Risks remain, most clearly from shoppers’ substitution into online commerce for an ever-widening range of quickly delivered products. In managing those risks, the shift to destination “shop and play” retail models — and the emergence of new models including urban outlet centers — are taking on new urgency as competition for consumer dollars intensifies.
of their prospects in the job market, is also on the upswing.
early 2015.
While the impact of e-commerce on retailers has varied dramatically across product types, there is no segment of the market that is fully immune to the fundamental changes in the way Americans shop. Properties that are perceived as more resilient to substitution out of brick-and-mortar, including the most urban locations and grocery- and pharmacy-anchored properties, commanded a larger price premium and lower cap rates in 2014. That divergence in retail property values may narrow in 2015 as a better job market and rising discretionary spending lift some weaker segments of the market.