SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Multifamily Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Multifamily Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.
Top Multifamily Market to Watch: Charlotte, NC
The multifamily market in Charlotte has experienced strong growth in demand as the city has gained 10.1% in population from 2010 to 2014, according to the Census Bureau. This has been fueled by significant job growth that has set new records substantially above pre-recession peaks, leading the present unemployment rate to sit at 5.3% as of January ‘16 with new job creation occurring at an annualized rate of 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Approximately 45% of the city’s housing stock is renter occupied. Thus, a good deal of the new population is likely to demand an apartment. Further, gross rents are below national averages, making Charlotte affordable and capable of seeing meaningful rent growth. New supply has grown approximately 4% in 2015 which will lower rent growth slightly in 2016, but still likely to be robust and above 4%. Many sectors are adding jobs at annualized rates above 4%, including Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Hospitality. However, this city does face a unique risk to continued growth from the new “bathroom” law, perceived very negatively by many; this could jeopardize new job growth and thus the market if firms choose to relocate or otherwise curtail operations in the state.
Stay Updated…
Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.
To read more on other top multifamily markets, download the full version of the 2016 Multifamily Market Outlook report here.
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Charlotte has expanded its employment base steadily since the recession bottomed in 2010 and currently has a relatively low 5.3% unemployment rate, as of January ‘16, and 2.8% annualized growth of new jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The region has also grown population by 10.1% from 2010 to 2014 according to the Census Bureau, making it prime for expansion and development of retail real estate. Major growing employment segments include Mining, Logging, and Construction, Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality with 6.4%, 4.8%, and 4.6% annualized growth, respectively. As Charlotte continues to be a popular place to work and live, more firms are likely to enter the market, including those seeking to establish corporate headquarters. Despite these positive forces, North Carolina’s recently enacted “bathroom law” threatens to reverse economic growth as businesses and consumers look elsewhere to avoid the perceived discriminatory law; this could cause pain to the retail sector for the rest of 2016 and beyond if not fixed.
Charlotte is generally well-regarded for its healthy office market and, having recovered substantially from the financial crisis, is drawing retailers with an eye for its improving employment and consumer outlook. With falling retail vacancy rates and only modest levels of construction, market fundamentals are poised to strengthen through 2015 and 2016. Across all retail subtypes, Chandan Economics reports the market vacancy rate for mortgage-financed properties fell below 7% in the fourth quarter of 2014. As compared to a year earlier, the pace of rent growth nearly doubled during 2014.
