SVNIC’s 2016 Market Outlook Reports assess the current state of the national commercial real estate market, and identify micro-trends within specific geographic regions and industries for 2016. Today we are delving into the 2016 Top Office Markets to Watch. Not the largest or the most actively contested markets, the 2016 Office Markets to Watch are each at an important juncture that presents unique opportunities for investment. Together, they reflect the diversity of trends that is driving the economy and commercial real estate performance in markets across the country.
Top Office Market to Watch: San Francisco, CA
San Francisco remains one of the hottest office markets in North America, led by booms in the tech industry that are seeking urban locations over sprawling campus sites. As such, the Bay Area has some of the highest rents and lowest vacancies and this trend is not forecast to reverse anytime soon. The overall economy is very healthy for the size of this metro, with unemployment at 3.9% as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Office-using sectors are some of the fastest growing, with Professional and Business Services, Information, and Financial Activities growing at 5.4%, 4.8%, and 1.3% annualized rates, respectively. Affordability of office space, as well as overall cost of living and operating, are the biggest impediments to sustained growth; thus, expect the suburbs to grow and urbanize at increasing rates as well.
Stay Updated…
Over the next few weeks, the SVN Blog will be featuring posts that will focus on each of the top markets to watch for industrial, multifamily, office, and retail properties. SVN Advisors from selected top markets have provided their industry expertise regarding what to look out for in their specific market in the coming months. Don’t miss out on these important insights – subscribe to the SVN Blog on the right side of the blog homepage.
To read more on other top office markets, download the full version of the 2016 Office Market Outlook report here.
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SVNIC’s 2016 
Minneapolis remains one of the strongest and most stable economies in the nation with 3.9% unemployment in January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The metro area has steadily gained total employment while only experiencing a modest decline during the past recession. The key office-using sectors are fairly stable with modest growth as Financial Activities and Professional and Business Services gain jobs at 1.6% and 0.9% annualized rates, respectively, while Information remains mostly flat at –0.3%. Given that Minneapolis is repeatedly cited as a good place to do business, its office market is likely to maintain stability and grow in 2016 and beyond. Further, Minneapolis is experiencing a long-term trend of re-urbanization, meaning that the CBD is likely to perform well for the extended horizon.
Houston is the hub of oil and energy production in the United States and, as such, is uniquely susceptible to the recent oil price declines that appear to have near-term persistence. It is likely that the office market in Houston will experience some pain in 2016 and beyond on a relative basis. Declines are already being felt in key office sectors with Information and Professional and Business Services declining at -2.5% and -1.8% annualized rates, respectively; however, Financial Activities is growing at 2.0% and thus should balance some of the negative effects. Overall, the Houston economy is actually fairly healthy with a 4.8% unemployment rate as of January ‘16 which has stayed near constant for much of 2015; thus, fears of the oil price declines may be overblown.
Ft. Lauderdale has experienced significant recovery from the recession but still remains below pre-recession peaks in both total employment and lows in the unemployment rate. Still, the economy is quite healthy with a 4.7% unemployment measure as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As part of a multi-metro region, Ft. Lauderdale offers relatively lower office rents and higher occupancies, as well as an overall lower regional cost of living (especially compared to Miami) and thus is a rational place to grow and expand a business. Key office sectors are displaying strength with Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Information all markedly positive with annualized growth rates of 4.5%, 4.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. The office market of Ft. Lauderdale should perform well in 2016.
Denver remains one of the most rock-solid metropolitan economies in the nation with 3.0% unemployment in January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while maintaining steady, slow growth that has total employment at record highs. The office market is equally steady with a relatively low level of vacancy and fair asking rents. This stability and growth should persist in 2016 for the office sector as key employment groups – Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Information – are all showing strong-to-decent annualized growth of 3.9%, 3.2%, and 1.8%, respectively. Denver maintains a diversified set of economic base activities including aerospace, bioscience, and energy, just to name a few. As such, the office market is likely to withstand any negative impacts of global uncertainty and oil price declines for the foreseeable future.
Dallas remains one of the fastest growing employment centers in the nation, even with the energy price declines of 2015. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate sits near record lows at 3.8% as of January ‘16, with the city creating over a half million new jobs since the recession. The office markets have fared well, as key office sectors of Financial Activities and Professional and Business Services have grown at strong annualized rates of 4.8% and 2.3%, respectively. Information has remained fairly flat at 0.4% annualized growth. As Dallas has become a modern international city with the help of the DFW airport, it is perhaps the best positioned market in the oil-producing region of the U.S. to weather any pain from the petroleum industry. The office market should remain stable and growing in 2016 and beyond.
Cincinnati’s economy is still struggling to find a consistent growth trend as unemployment started the new year at 5.2%, up from 3.9% in August of ‘15, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Positive signs for the office market can be seen in Financial Activities and Information, which are growing at annualized rates of 3.6% and 2.2%, respectively; however the key office-using sector of Professional and Business Services is losing ground with –1.6% growth. Overall, the run of consolidations in industries such as banking, legal firms, etc. has still left Cincinnati with relatively high vacancies and lower lease rates. As the national economy grows, these relative pricing advantages should position Cincinnati to gain new tenants and users looking to locate in the region.
Atlanta has experienced strong gains in total employment and is setting record highs as of January ‘16, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with unemployment at 5.2% and new job creation at an annualized rate of 3.5%. This includes growth in key office-using sectors including Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Education and Health Services, which grew at annualized rates 5.0%, 2.0%, and 1.8%, respectively. In addition, Construction employment is growing at a 7.4% annualized rate, indicating further overall economic growth is projected to occur in Atlanta in 2016 and beyond. According to Georgia Trend, many high impact industries are likely to accelerate growth in Atlanta including life sciences and technology. These forces should cause rising rental rates and falling vacancies in the metro region, with downtown/midtown potentially poised to gain in the overall trend of urbanization affecting cities such as Atlanta.
Never in the recent history of the American economy has it taken so long to recover the jobs lost over the course of a downturn. That milestone was reached in 2014, more than 6 years after the Great Recession first took hold. Employers added more than 3 million jobs over the year, finally recouping losses from the crisis-era cull in the strongest showing for job creation since the dot-com boom.
Nearly 2 percent annual population growth and a diverse employment base are propelling San Antonio’s economy at a healthy clip, but the market lags the performance and rising profile of the other major Texas metros of Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth and Austin. San Antonio’s longstanding strength in the military and aerospace sectors, coupled with close proximity to Austin’s high tech cluster, has fostered an important cyber security sub sector. Located less than an hour’s drive south of Austin, the Alamo City has also captured a large piece of the Eagle Ford Shale energy boom emanating from South Texas, while its business-friendly climate, thriving tourism and manufacturing jobs attract new residents and fuel home sales. Office tenants were still giving back space in 2012 but absorption turned positive here in 2013. Delivery of several new office projects slowed rent growth and pushed the office vacancy rate into the middle teens last year without softening conditions enough to hamper rental rate growth. More construction is likely to begin in 2014. For investors who missed the opportunity to acquire office assets in Houston, Dallas or Austin at the bottom of the market cycle, San Antonio offers acquisition and development opportunities in a market that is in the early stages of appreciation.