Labor Shortage Not Likely to Effect Commercial Real Estate Values

Posted on June 21, 2017 by SVN

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3% as of May 2017. Most economists would describe this state of unemployment as near “full employment” as historical data analyses show that the country rarely dips below 4% and never for that long. Yet, this near historically low unemployment has occurred less from overly robust hiring, but instead from a lack of qualified workers able to fill open positions. In fact, the BLS reported in May a modest +138,000 jobs added to the economy, a good but not great number. Perhaps more importantly, the jobs report showed no single sector reporting significant losses, which indicates that all are hiring or holding steady. In addition, the only sector to have shown persistent losses over the last year, Mining (which includes energy production and exploration), has even reversed itself and is posting significant gains over the last few months. Therefore, the jobs report truly only supports the conclusion of an ever growing, albeit slowly, economy.

ECONOMIC GROWTH HELD BACK BY LOW LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

The challenge lies in the measured economic growth rate which was reported as 1.2% first quarter revised annualized GDP growth by the BEA. Normally, such low unemployment would be accompanied by much higher GDP growth, as in the +3% range, but the U.S. economy has struggled to get above 2% over the past several years. The answer to this problem may be that the low unemployment rate is a result of a low supply of qualified workers and not an excessive amount of job creation. The labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of those theoretically able to work and/or desiring to work, remains low at 62.7%. This measure peaked above 67% in the early 2000’s, and has fallen in-part due to the retiring baby boomers. But following the Great Recession it fell rapidly down, approximately 66%, to this 62-63% range where it still hovers today. Why people are not desiring to or actually working as they did ten years ago is the subject of study and speculation beyond today’s scope. What is becoming clearer with each monthly jobs report, is that it is holding back broader economic growth.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IS HOLDING ITS VALUE

The impact this will have on commercial real estate investments in 2017 and beyond is difficult to predict, but some insights are clear. First, some economists are forecasting a mild recession 12 to 24 months from now, based largely on historic macroeconomic cyclical activity. In the past, such low levels of unemployment were often followed by a mild recession within the same timeframe. However, recessions are typically triggered by excessive speculation, risk-taking, and usually hyper aggressive lending that pushes the economy too far. The data does not show any such excesses, especially in the use of leverage or aggressiveness of lenders. So, such predictions may not come true. Second, the labor shortage is being felt very strongly in the construction services and materials sectors. This means the cost to build new properties is rising faster than market rents and prices can justify. The net result is commercial real estate will probably hold its value just fine, and in fact, appreciate in areas where there is short supply. In conclusion, according to the data, we are probably closer to the middle of the cycle than the end.

Why The Return of Uncertainty Could Be Good for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on May 1, 2017 by SVN

As the new administration crosses its 100-day mark, there is great uncertainty about what types of policies, ranging from health care, immigration, tax, and regulatory reform, exist. In fact, the celebrated “Trump Trade” has more or less stalled as of today, but the gains remain locked in place for the most part. The business and investment world has collectively reached a “now what” posture. Overall, recent measures of consumer and CEO confidence continue to rise as consumer confidence rose to 125.6 in March, up from the prior reading of 116.1, and CEO confidence rose from its prior reading of 65 to 68. The bulk of the country remains steady with the rise of optimism detected post November 2016, despite the uproar presented by the nightly evening news

Unemployment Rate Near Historic Low

Recent economic data has added additional uncertainty into the discussion. The most recent monthly report shows that only 98,000 jobs were added, a decrease from the previously reported numbers which were well above 200 thousand each month. However, the headline unemployment rate also fell to a near historic low of 4.5%, indicating an overall tight labor market. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, also had its first negative reading of -0.3% in March after many successive reports of greater than 2% annualized inflation. The net result is less certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term or that aggressively over the next year. With long-term bond rates already down 20 to 30 basis points from recent highs, the potential for an “overheating” economy where inflation runs wild seems less likely as of today than it did three months ago.

3 Reasons Why Uncertainty Could Be Good News for CRE

There are three main reasons why this level of political and economic uncertainty can be very good news for the commercial real estate sector.

The market believes the uncertainty has a positive tilt. It’s more likely that we will unexpectedly receive good news rather than bad news (such as a surprise passage of a tax reform package that’s good for business).
There appears to be a lower probability of rapid interest rate increases, and consequently cap rate increases. This should boost the confidence for real estate investors looking to make acquisitions today.
The underlying fundamental demand for commercial real estate space, including apartments, continue to grow. Yardi reported the first increase in five months in average national multifamily rents with a gain of $6 per month to a rate of $1,312. As always, the likelihood of having a perfect world for commercial real estate is low given that interest rates are staying steady while rents and occupancies continue to rise. Right now this appears to be the condition for at least the near term.

Even though the future can be uncertain, real estate is set to outperform stocks and bonds in 2017. In the last month, REITs provided a total return of 6.03% while the S&P 500 index only returned 0.12%. In addition, REITs set a multi-year record for amount of capital raised in the first quarter of ’17. Historically, REIT performance serves as leading indicator of future returns to private real estate.

September 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

Posted on September 13, 2016 by SVN

Commercial Real Estate, Interest Rates, and the Federal Reserve

On September 20-21st the Federal Open Market Committee will meet and announce their decision on the target Federal Funds Rate and issue guidance on future changes. Given that the unemployment rate has remained stable and below 5% (4.9% as of the latest August report), hiring averaging above 200k per month for the long term, and inflation starting to read above 2% (2.1% annualized rate according to the Price Index of Personal Consumption Expenditures in the second quarter of ’16) it is widely believed that the Fed will resume raising its rate this September if economic conditions remain stable. The current target rate is 0.25-0.50% and any raise in this month is not likely to be more than 0.25%; however, the recent jobs report of only 151,000 (below the hypothetical 200k target to sustain growth) has led some to believe the rate hike will be paused to November.

A quarter point increase in and of itself is not likely to have any real significance to commercial real estate or other long-term assets; what will be impactful is the perceived stance of the Fed going forward with regard to the timing and magnitude of future rate increases. If the Fed postures that it must be aggressive in fighting inflation, then long-term interests will likely rise as could cap rates on investment real estate. This is not a very likely outcome of this FOMC meeting; the more likely outcome is a slight raise, or even deferment to the November meeting, with continued guarded measures to watch conditions unfold. With GDP growth averaging around 1%, it is hard to envision great fears about an “overheated” economy. Thus, it is not logical to expect much to change in the near term for commercial real estate, whatever the Fed may decide.

The Federal Reserve: Promoting Full Employment and Price Stability

To understand what the Fed is attempting to do, one must remember that they are said to operate on a “dual mandate” to promote full employment and price stability (i.e., keep inflation in check). At 4.9%, the US economy is theoretically at “full employment”, but given the slow rate of wage growth, small gains in productivity, and seemingly tenuous inconsistencies in hiring (May added only 24k new jobs) there is not a widely held view that the employment situation is healthy enough to sustain new economic shocks. Further, the unemployment rate that includes discouraged, marginally attached, and part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment stands at 9.7% (this is known as the U6 measure) which is above its hypothetical target of around 8% but drastically improved from its recessionary peak of 17.1% in December of ’09. Thus, the Fed has little motivation to “pump the breaks” and risk moving away from full employment.

Inflation and price stability is much trickier to assess. The Bureau of Economic Analysis produces the Price Index of Personal Consumption; as stated above its most recent reading is above 2%. The more commonly cited Census Bureau Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently reading 0.8% annualized for all-items and 2.2% for all-items excluding food and energy. Overall, prices do not appear to be rising in totality, but certain areas such as Shelter, Transportation Services, and Medical Care are all growing at rates above 3%. If energy prices were to move upward, overall inflation could spike well above 3%. Thus, the Fed is pressured to “not wait too long”.

Impact on Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate has been in the winner’s circle for quite a few years, benefiting from high rent growth and simultaneously low interest rates and capital costs. Even low energy prices have a direct boost to net operating incomes of many commercial landlords. This dynamic is not poised to reverse itself in the short or even medium term. In fact, as fixed-income securities are much more at risk to interest rate spikes, more investment capital could move to CRE assets as a result of the Fed decision. In summation, real estate investors have little to worry about this round; but, it would be foolish to believe this low interest rate, high rent growth environment will last forever.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions throughout the U.S., read the 2016 Market Outlook Reports here.

[bctt tweet=”Real estate investors have little to worry about this round #CRE” username=”svnic”]

Late Summer 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

Posted on August 30, 2016 by SVN

2016 Continues to be a Year of Strong Performance in Commercial Real Estate

While macro-economic uncertainty and global instability may grab headlines, commercial real estate fundamentals and pricing continues to grow and expand according to second quarter results of major real estate data providers REIS, Inc. and CoStar Group. Overall with limited exceptions, all major sectors of commercial real estate experienced positive net absorption, declining vacancies, and positive rent growth in the second quarter of 2016, continuing a growth trend that has been in place for several years now according to REIS, Inc. The leading sector, in terms of rent growth, was multifamily with an approximate 1% growth in effective rents while office, industrial, and retail all experienced rates around 0.5%, which is just above estimated inflation. The improvements come as a result of sustained, stable new demand and limited new supply. In fact, REIS, Inc. reports that in the second quarter, completions of new apartment units, office space, and retail space fell in year over year measures as the overall pace of new construction slowed slightly. Census Bureau data also showed an overall rate of decline in volume for construction spending in all categories as well.

Slow and Steady Growth Through 2Q ’16

Thus, the markets are facing a continued dynamic of slow, but meaningful demand growth with relatively slower rates of new supply expansion; thus the result of higher rents and lower vacancies is entirely logical. Further, this condition of relative undersupply is only likely to get worse before getting better as capital markets remain constrained in financing new developments. So for now, tenants will be the losers and landlords the winners. Of course, the lack of quality, available vacant space in some markets is actually forcing firms to move markets to expand and thus causing some pain in some municipalities’ economic development initiates. Enterprising developers in certain markets may find great reward in speculative development at this stage of the cycle.

Pricing of commercial real estate assets also showed growth in the second quarter of 2016. CoStar Group reported a quarterly gain in pricing of 2% which represents a reversal from the first quarter which saw modest declines. CoStar’s value-weighted US Composite Index, which is more representative of large institutional grade assets, was up 3.3% quarter over quarter; while the equal-weighted US Composite Index, more inclusive of smaller properties, rose by only 2.1% in the second quarter. All property types were positive with apartments being the year over year leader at 8.5%. While all pricing results were positive, the rate of growth for 2016 is slower than 2015, but still pointing to the potential for 2016 to be a record-setting year.

Supply, Demand, and the Strengthening Job Market

The most recent quarterly results highlight the fact that supply and demand fundamentals are driving the commercial real estate markets despite turbulence in the capital markets, tightness in the lending environment, and even macro-economic slowdowns. Thus, it is logical to expect most markets to show resilience in the face of continued uncertainty. Of course, national job growth, which showed the initial signs of a slowdown, has rebounded back to strong positive growth in the past two months which is a positive indicator of real estate demand increasing in the near future. Overall, investors should be most concerned with monitoring localized oversupply or idiosyncratic demand pullbacks as the nation appears very stable and relatively healthy.

The next shoe to drop could be the Federal Reserve resuming their planned interest rate hikes given the positive hiring results of June and July. This could of course impact commercial real estate by raising cap rates and increasing the index rates of new loans. Since today’s cap rate spreads to treasury rates remain relatively wide, there need not be significant impact from such events but are nonetheless a source of risk, especially to pricing.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions throughout the US, read the 2016 Market Outlook Reports here.

Mid Summer 2016 Commercial Real Estate Update

Posted on August 8, 2016 by SVN

Discerning Solid Demand Drivers from Fads in Commercial Real Estate

As economic data suggest the US macro economy is just slowly growing, 1.2% annualized GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 as a prime example, it is worthy to question the source of sustained demand growth for commercial real estate. Overall, commercial real estate prices are at or near all-time highs according to Real Capital Analytics and occupancies are generally near normal peaks. Thus, it is anticipated that many investors and market participants will begin or have begun to question where commercial real estate is in the proverbial “cycle” and if some form of a downturn is probable for the future. While it is difficult to forecast the future, determining whether present property fundamentals and pricing is a result of solid demand drivers or just potentially fleeting “fads” is highly worthwhile and more important for long-term investment decisions.

Demographic Waves Driving Commercial Real Estate Demand

In real estate, demand trends are ultimately governed by demographics. There are two major demographic waves that will persist for years to come. First, the rising of the Millennials and second, the aging of the population (also known as the Baby Boomer bust). While this is hardly a new topic of conversation in the real estate industry, some of its most primary implications to core demand seem lost during said “cycle” discussions. To illustrate why these discussions must be merged, a simple snapshot of 30-year-olds in America is presented courtesy of data from the US Census Bureau. In 1975, 71% of 30-year-olds had married, had a child, completed schooling, and had moved out of their parents’ house; as of 2015 the number of 30-year-olds meeting all four criteria had fallen to 32%. Further, this trend is worsening and not likely to reverse anytime soon. Now, given that data, consider where a rational person who is unmarried, childless, and potentially in school is going to live when they finally move out of their family home – clearly the answer is in rental housing. Thus, those analyzing the apartment sector without considering the impact of such changing demographics are more likely to see oversupply, when in fact the actual condition for some markets is undersupply.

A similar story regarding the aging of America can also be made using Census data which shows that the percentage of the population over 65 will go from less than 14% in 2010 to almost 22% by 2030. Now, consider the prototypical 65-year-old household; it will likely be childless (at least under the age of 18) with just one to two adults with potentially limited income. With a little creative analysis, it is apparent that the prototypical Millennial household (i.e., a single person or two adult individuals with limited income) is actually quite economically similar to the Baby Boomer household. Further, while not identical, both will have somewhat similar demands for real estate. Thus, the ever insatiable demand for multifamily, certain types of retail, and other properties seems far more logical when all sources of demand are considered. In short, apartments are doing well today, in both fundamentals and pricing, because they benefit from solid demand drivers; meaning those not likely to deteriorate in the short term and most likely to persist for the long term.

Finding True Demand Drivers Across Product Types

When analyzing all other sectors such as office, industrial, retail, and hospitality, it is equally important to assess how “solid” the demand drivers are for those sectors’ product. E-commerce appears very “solid” and thus its impacts on retail and industrial are likely to persist as well. For the contrarian example, consider trends in co-working, clustered work spaces, and other trends in office space; they may all end up being a “fad”, as they are not backed by a solid demand driver. Thus, savvy investors do not spend time assessing “cycles”, they spend time discerning true demand drivers from fads. Most, if not all, “bubbles” that burst are fads being discontinued. This includes the housing “bubble” of the 2000’s; the “fad” was mom and pop investors buying multiple houses just to flip, even though they could never live in or afford them as rentals.

To learn more about the current CRE market and economic conditions throughout the US, read the 2016 Market Outlook Reports here.

[bctt tweet=”Overall, commercial real estate prices are at or near all-time highs #CRE” username=”svnic”]